Core macro

The headline inflation-adjusted output measure and the single broadest gauge of whether the economy is expanding or contracting.

The annualized real GDP growth rate is the number markets actually trade on each release and frames the macro narrative.

Consumer spending is ~70% of GDP, so this is the cleanest monthly read on end demand across the economy.

Captures business and residential investment, the most cyclical and rate-sensitive GDP component and a key capex-cycle signal.

The headline inflation benchmark that drives Fed expectations, real-yield math, and COLA/contract pricing.

Core CPI strips volatile food/energy to reveal the underlying inflation trend the Fed actually targets policy against.

The Fed's preferred headline inflation gauge, so it carries more weight for rate-path expectations than CPI.

Core PCE is the explicit 2% Fed target metric and the most policy-relevant inflation series in the dashboard.

The headline labor-slack measure feeding the Fed's dual mandate and a primary recession/cycle indicator.

The single most market-moving monthly data point, measuring net job creation and the pace of labor demand.

The highest-frequency labor signal, giving an early weekly read on layoffs before the monthly payroll print.

The Fed's primary policy rate that anchors the entire short end of the curve and bank funding costs.

The global risk-free benchmark that drives discount rates, mortgage pricing, and equity valuation multiples.

The classic yield-curve recession signal; inversion has preceded every modern recession and pressures bank net interest margins.

Market-implied expected inflation that separates real-yield from inflation-premium moves in nominal rates.

The premier daily credit-risk and financial-stress gauge; widening spreads signal tightening conditions and risk-off.

A model-based monthly probability the economy is in recession, useful for cycle positioning and risk overlays.

A leading read on household confidence and willingness to spend, with inflation-expectation subcomponents the Fed watches.

Measures real output of factories, mines, and utilities, a core gauge of the goods economy and manufacturing cycle.

Housing starts lead the construction cycle and signal demand for building materials, appliances, and mortgage credit.

Broad money supply that frames liquidity conditions and longer-run inflation, closely watched after the post-2020 surge and contraction.